Posts Tagged ‘stocks’
Stock Trading Technical Analysis Secrets
Tuesday, May 4th, 2010Technical analysis of the stock market, or any other market such as Forex, futures, is how most traders and investors make their trading decisions. This is as opposed to fundamental analysis which most people more agree is pretty much done as a way of making trading decisions, unless of course you are Warren Buffet!.
You only have to think back to recent stock market scams like Enron to know that it is almost impossible for the average, and even very sophisticated fund manager or hedge fund trader to really know what the real financial state of a company is.
Just by reading the balance sheet and other quaterly reports they release gives you a very poor insight into the real health of the company. Whereas the technical charts of the company tend to give the real picture of what the market thinks of the value of the company. In the case of Enron even simple technical analysis told you to SELL when the stock was in the $80-90 range, this is why technical analysis of stocks is so popular.
So what are the secrets to technical analysis?, I’m about to tell you, here are my golden rules:
* Only use 3-5 simple technical analysis indicators
* Make sure that you understand how the indicators that you have selected work, what the parameter settings are and in what market conditions they are effective
* After selecting your indicators and parameter settings don’t mess with them.
The real secret to technical analysis is to become VERY familiar with your choosen indicators, and really this can only be done by watching and studying the market, so that you get to the point that you TRUST them.
The fact is that in any market, for each bar, there are only 5 pieces of information, the open, close, high, low and volume, yet there are now hundreds of indicators. Most of these indicators are displaying the same information and so are redundant.
For the record my set of indicators are:
* 4 Simple Moving Averages
* Bollinger Bands
* MACD
* Stochastics
But the way I use them is quite special, to learn more about how to become an expert at technical analysis visit:
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Best Moving Average Secrets
Monday, April 26th, 2010One of the most popular technical analysis indicators is the simple moving average also known as SMA, if you learn how to use these correctly they can be a very useful tool to help you to make good trading decisions.
The 50 simple moving average, or 50 SMA, is simply the sum of the last 50 values for each period, divided by 50, this is a moving window, as time moves on so does the average. Notice that I used the term period because this indicator works on any time period in exactly the same way.
It can be used on monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 30 minutes, 15 minute and on whatever time period you want to monitor and trade. Although the SMA is the most widley used there is also the exponential moving average or EMA. This is a weighted version of the formula using the mathematical exponent function to give more weight to the more recent values, this has the effect of making it a much faster average that many traders like.
The truth is that it probably does not matter if you used the SMA or the EMA, what does matter however is that you use one or the other and then be very consistent with it. Do not switch between them, it is more important that you trust your chosen indicator then a slight difference in its value.
The SMA is oftern used to determine what the trend of the stock is, depending on the value used it could be a short term, medium term or long term trend. An important point to note is that moving averages are really only useful when the stock is trending, if the moving average is flat, i.e. horizontal on your chart it can become very choppy, this is a good time to stay out of the market.
The general rule is that if the current price is above the SMA the trend is up, if below the trend is down. This is very important to know because it forms the basics of trend trading and trading with the trend.
For the short term trend many traders like using a 5-8 SMA or EMA, here is a trading secret, never trade again the direction of the short term tend, this is really just common sense when you think about it.
Moving averages can often act as support or resistance, many traders use the 15, 21 or 30 SMA for this purpose.
There are a number of other very important moving averages that you need to know about, these are the 50, 100 and 200 SMA, and this mostly applies to the daily and weekly charts. A lot of the big players in the markets, the mutual funds, investment banks etc use the 50 and 200 SMA as support and resistance, if they decide to buy or sell based on these you need to follow suite, the 100 to a lesser extent. These are very useful averages to watch if you trade EFT’s like an Oil ETF.
A useful tip is that when a stock breaks through one moving average it will often move all the way to the next, for example, if a stock breaks the 30 it may move to the 50 before finding some support or resistance.
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Know Your Investment Style, It’s Very Important
Monday, March 29th, 2010This is something that most people don’t even think about, but knowing what your risk tolerance is and investment style are very important. This will help you choose investments that are more suited to you, and which the long run should do better as you will be less stressed about them and make fewer trading errors.
While there are many different types of investments that one can make, there are really only three specific investment styles, and those three styles tie in with your risk tolerance, these are conservative, moderate, and aggressive.
Naturally, if you find that you have a lowish tolerance for risk, your investment style will most likely be conservative or moderate at best. If you have a high tolerance for risk, and are relativily young, you will most likely be a moderate or aggressive investor. At the same time, your financial goals will also determine what style of investing you use.
If you are saving for retirement in your early twenties, you should use a conservative or moderate style of investing, but if you are trying to get together the funds to buy a home in the next year or two, you would want to use an aggressive style. Being an active stock market trader would be considered an aggressive style for most people.
Conservative investors want to make sure that they maintain their initial capital and make modest gains per year, they want to sleep well at night. In other words, if they invest $4000 they want to be sure that they will get their initial $4000 back. This type of investor usually invests in blue chip common stocks and bonds and short term money market accounts. But remember trading stocks, even if they are blue chips can still be very risky as we have seen in the 2008/9 bear market.
An interest earning savings account is very common for conservative investors.
A moderate investor usually invests much like a conservative investor, but will use a portion of their investment funds for higher risk investments. Many moderate investors invest up to 50% of their investment funds in safe or conservative investments, and invest the remainder in riskier investments.
An aggressive investor is willing to take bigger risks that other investors won’t take. They invest higher amounts of cash in riskier ventures in the hopes of achieving larger returns – either over time or in a short amount of time. Aggressive investors often have all or most of their investment monies tied up in the stock market.
Again, determining what style of investing you will use will be determined by your financial goals and your risk tolerance. No matter what type of investing you do, however, you should always carefully research the investment and never invest your cash without having all of the facts.
If you think you are an aggressive investor and intend to trade stocks activily, make sure that you learn how to trade before making your 1st stock purchase.
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